Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security systems isn't just financial. This study indicates that these systems may have exerted adverse effects on key demographic factors, private savings, and long-term growth rates. Through a comprehensive endogenous-growth model where human capital is the engine of growth, family choices affect human capital formation, and family formation itself is a choice variable, we show that social security taxes and benefits can create adverse incentive effects on family formation and subsequent household choices, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years (1960-92). We find that PAYG tax measures account for a sizeable part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, and for a slowdown in the rates of savings and economic growth, especially in OECD countries.

The Evolution of Income and Fertility Inequalities over the Course of Economic Development: A Human Capital Perspective

Using an endogenous-growth, overlapping-generations framework where human capital is the engine of growth, we trace the dynamic evolution of income and fertility distributions and their interdependencies over three endogenous phases of economic development. In our model, heterogeneous families determine fertility and children’s human capital, and generations are linked via parental altruism and social interactions. We derive and test discriminating propositions concerning the dynamic behavior of inequalities in fertility, educational attainments, and three endogenous income inequality measures -- family-income inequality, income-group inequality, and the Gini coefficient. In this context, we also reexamine the "Kuznets hypothesis" concerning the relation between income growth and inequality.

Explaining Diversities in Age-Specific Life Expectancies and Values of Life Saving: A Numerical Analysis

Little attempt has been made so far to quantify the extent to which individual willingness to spend on life protection may account for the observed trends and diversities in agespecific life expectancies across individuals and over time. We address these issues via calibrated simulations of a dynamic, life-cycle model of life protection in which life's end is a stochastic event, age-specific mortality risks are endogenous variables, and spending on life protection is set jointly with related insurance options: life insurance as well as annuities. A unique feature of our model is that it links age-specific mortality risks and implicit private values-of-life-saving (VLS) as "dual variables", and estimates them jointly. It also offers new insights about the concept and measurement of VLS. Life protection is estimated to have a non-negligible impact on age-specific life expectancies. It can account for significant portions of observed inequalities in life expectancies across population groups and over time, as well as for a wide range of empirical estimates of VLS produced via the conventional "willingness to pay" approach.

Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

The future of democratic capitalism : a human capital perspective

Schumpeter’s diagnosis of capitalism seems to be fully validated by the financial crisis and severe recession, except that he was wrong on his main prediction – that capitalism’s flaws would cause it to lose its vitality. The reality is that Democratic Capitalism has flourished despite episodes of depression, war, prohibition, and intrusive interventionist policies. It is therefore a mistake to engage in a critical assessment of capitalism while world economies are still close to the ebb of the business cycle. Free markets cannot abolish the business cycle in the same way that free trade and free capital flows cannot abolish investment bubbles. While we are at the depth of recession, it is hard to see light. But we should also have a better understanding of what caused the “tsunami” before blaming democratic capitalism and free markets of being its main culprits. This is what I try to summarize in section 1. In section 2 and 3, I will try to summarize the performance

The Mystery of Capital and the Construction of Social Reality

John Searle’s The Construction of Social Reality and Hernando de Soto’s The Mystery of Capital shifted the focus of current thought on capital and economic development to the cultural and conceptual ideas that underpin market economies and that are taken for granted in developed nations. This collection of essays assembles 21 philosophers, economists, and political scientists to help readers understand these exciting new theories

The Mystery of Human Capital as Engine of Growth, or Why the US Became the Economic Superpower in the 20th Century

This paper offers a thesis as to why the US overtook the UK and other European countries in the 20th century in both aggregate and per-capita GDP, as a case study of recent models of endogenous growth where human capital is the "engine of growth". The conjecture is that the ascendancy of the US as an economic superpower owes in large measure to its relatively faster human capital formation. Whether the thesis has legs to stand on is assessed through stylized facts indicating that the US led other OECD countries in schooling attainments per adult population over the 20 century, especially at the secondary and tertiary levels. While human capital is viewed as the direct facilitator of growth, the underlying factors driving the US ascendancy are linked to the superior returns the political-economic system in the US has so far offered individual human capital attainments, both home-produced and imported.